Baromètre d’opinion monténégrin sur l’intégration à l’OTAN, juin 2009

JUNE’S KEY FIGURES
Period June 11-19, 2009
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Confidence in institutions : 1. Serbian Orthodox Church ; 2. President of Montenegro ; 3. European Union ; 4. Government of Montenegro ; 5. Montenegrin Police ; 6. Montenegrin Army ; 7. Montenegrin Parliament ; 8. Montenegrin Judiciary ; 9. Montenegrin Orthodox Church ; 10. NATO ; 11. Political Parties in Montenegro ; 12. The Hague Tribunal.

Interest in military and defense issues : A little 27.1% ; Not at all 21.0% ; Interested to a certain level 20.9% ; Very interested 12.2% — No opinion 18.9%.

Perception of awareness on ongoing military and defense issues : Mostly informed 26.2% ; Mostly not informed 25.8% ; Not informed at all 22.7% ; Very well informed 7.5% — No opinion 17.8%.

Risk of military aggression on Montenegro : NO 67.0% ; YES 10.0%.

Perception of security threats : 1. Organised crime ; 2. Economic and social clashes ; 3. Natural disasters ; 4. Tensions and instability in the region ; 5. Global terrorism ; 6. Political clashes ; 7. Violent replacement of governing structures.

Support to Montenegro’s entry in Partnership for Peace : Completely support it 35.0% ; Mostly support it 26.1% ; Totally do not support it 9.4% ; Mostly do not support it 7.2% — No opinion 22.3%.

Membership into NATO : NO 43.3% ; YES 30.0%.

Importance of Montenegro’s integration into NATO : Not an important issue 27.8% ; A very important issue 24.2% ; To certain level 22.0% — Don’t know, can not answer 26.0%.

Joining NATO would have favourable influence on : 1. Relations development between Montenegro and the EU ; 2. Relations development between Montenegro and the USA ; 3. Peace and stability in Montenegro ; 4. Peace and stability in the Balkan region, equality with Montenegrin boarder security ; 5. Montenegrin citizens’ security ; 6. Investment in Montenegro, inflow of foreign investments ; 7. Efficiency of defense system ; 8. Relations development between Montenegro and ex-Yugoslav Republics ; 9. Development of Montenegrin economy ; 10. Development of democracy and human rights in Montenegro ; (...) 18. Relations development between Montenegro and Russia.

NATO is percepted primarily as : A military-political organisation 30.6% ; A political-military organisation 21.7% ; A military organisation 20.3% ; Only a political organisation, military issues are in second plan 10.2% — No opinion 17.1%.

Positive influence of Montenegro’s membership into NATO on the country’s relations with : 1. The USA ; 2. EU countries ; 3. Albania ; 4. UNMIK-Kosovo ; 5. Croatia ; 6. Macedonia ; 7. Bosnia and Herzegovina ; 8. Serbia ; 9. Russia.

Positive influence of Montenegro’s membership into NATO on : 1. Visa liberalisation ; 2. Economic growth ; 3. Increase of import from abroad ; 4. Increase of foreign investments in Montenegro ; 5. Technological development ; (...) 9. Increase of export of Montenegrin products.

“In which peace operation should the country be involved ?” : In missions under the auspices and UN flag 23.8% ; In all international missions no matter who organizes them 14.5% ; In international missions under the auspices and NATO command 9.2% ; In international missions under the auspices and USA command 2.2% ; Can not estimate 50.2%.

“Who should decide on joining NATO ?” : Citizens on referendum 69.9% ; Montenegrin Parliament 7.1% ; Montenegrin Government 5.3% ; Montenegrin Military Headquarters 2.9% ; NATO members 2.0%.

“Will Montenegro become a NATO member ?” : YES 48.9% ; NO 23.4%.

Influence of Montenegro’s membership into NATO on EU accession : Positive, NATO membership is a pre-condition for joining the EU 38.3% ; None, NATO and the EU are two independent institutions 19.3% ; Negative, it would be more difficult to join the EU 7.2% ; Can not estimate 35.3%.

THE CENTER FOR DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS (CEDEM) is a NGO established as a non-profitable association of citizens, of which main goal is to advance and spread conscience on importance of proper and successful democratic transition ; to research, analyze and follow process of transition ; to influence by its activities, as much as it is possible, on transitional process in Montenegro ; to contribute in strengthening of civil society and democratization process as a whole.

“Montenegrin Public Opinion” is one of the most important CEDEM’s projects. In the period 1999-2006, the NGO has conducted 26 surveys. Most of them (20 in total), as individual projects, were dedicated to certain aspects of the reform process in Montenegro or to especially topical issues within Montenegrin society.

CEDEM’s Department for Empiric Researches, in charge of the project “Montenegrin Public Opinion”, is headed by Veselin Pavićević, Ph.D., Professor of Law specialised in Electoral Systems and Election Law at the Faculty of Economy in Podgorica.